Tinubu Presents 2025 Budget of Restoration: Can It Deliver on Its Promises?

On Wednesday, December 18, President Bola Tinubu presented the 2025 appropriation bill before the 10th National Assembly. The budget, titled “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity,” is the second presented by Tinubu as Nigeria’s president.

The proposed budget stands at ₦49.7 trillion, with allocations detailed for various sectors of the economy. President Tinubu emphasized that the budget aims to address Nigeria’s economic challenges, including inflation and exchange rate instability, while boosting crude oil production.

Key Projections in the 2025 Budget

President Tinubu outlined ambitious targets for the 2025 fiscal year:

• Inflation reduction: From the current 34.6% to 15%.
• Exchange rate improvement: From approximately ₦1,700 to ₦1,500 per US dollar.
• Crude oil production: Increase to 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd).

However, these projections have sparked debate among Nigerians and economic experts about their feasibility and potential impact on the country’s struggling economy.

Concerns Over Late Budget Presentation

Economic expert Prof. Kabir Isa Dandago of Bayero University, Kano, raised concerns about the timing of the budget presentation. “This is the first time the budget is being presented in mid-December instead of September or October. This delay could hinder lawmakers from thoroughly reviewing and finalizing it by January,” he said.

The reliance on oil revenues, taxes, and loans to fund the ₦48 trillion budget has also drawn scrutiny. Prof. Dandago noted that Nigeria’s expected oil revenue might not fully cover the budget, leaving the government dependent on borrowing.

Economic Promises and Potential Challenges

The 2025 budget outlines plans to tackle inflation, improve agriculture, support businesses, and enhance healthcare for women and children. Prof. Dandago acknowledged that if implemented with honesty and efficiency, these initiatives could benefit Nigerians.

However, he expressed skepticism, citing a history of unfulfilled budget promises. “For years, we’ve seen similar budgets, but by the end of the year, they often fail to deliver. If the projections in this budget don’t materialize, Nigeria could face greater economic hardship.”

He also criticized the exchange rate projection of ₦1,500 to $1 as overly optimistic, suggesting a more realistic target of ₦1,000 to ₦1,100. “When President Tinubu assumed office, the dollar wasn’t as high as it is now. Similar predictions in the past have failed,” he added.

The Crude Oil Dilemma

Prof. Dandago proposed a shift in Nigeria’s crude oil strategy, advocating for local refining and domestic sales in naira rather than exporting crude oil. “Using local refineries and selling to companies in naira could stabilize the economy and reduce reliance on foreign exchange,” he explained.

A History of Disappointment

Reflecting on Nigeria’s budget performance since the return to civilian rule, Prof. Dandago remarked, “National budgets have yet to bring significant progress. This trend makes many view them as mere propaganda.”

As Nigerians await the implementation of the 2025 budget, the question remains: will this “Budget of Restoration” deliver on its promises, or will it become another unfulfilled vision?