Museveni’s seventh term bid raises fears of violence in Uganda
As Uganda gears up for its presidential election on January 12, 2026, concerns are mounting over the potential for violence and repression under President Yoweri Museveni’s regime. Museveni, 80, has been in power since 1986 and is seeking a seventh term, a move rights groups fear could spark “mass atrocities.”
Museveni’s initial rise to power was marked by his condemnation of African leaders who overstay in office. Yet, nearly four decades later, he continues to hold onto power, launching a voter registration drive last week to kick off the election process.
Opposition Under Siege
The 2021 election saw widespread allegations of violence and disappearances targeting opposition supporters, particularly those of musician-turned-politician Bobi Wine. Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, emerged as Museveni’s strongest challenger in that election but has since faced repeated arrests and alleged assassination attempts.
Speaking to AFP, Wine expressed little hope for a fair election in 2026, citing the regime’s history of violence. “We know they can do worse things, including killing me… we don’t expect the coming elections to be better,” he said.
Wine also criticized Museveni’s government as illegitimate and reliant on violence to maintain control. Despite the risks, he vowed to continue his struggle for Uganda’s liberation.
Threats and Intimidation
The president’s son and heir apparent, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has added to the tense atmosphere. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he made a violent threat against Wine, stating, “If Mzee [Museveni] was not there, I would cut off his head today.”
While Wine dismissed the threat as unserious, he acknowledged it as indicative of the regime’s potential for violence.
Other opposition figures have also faced severe repression. Former presidential candidate Kizza Besigye was abducted in Kenya in November and forcibly returned to Uganda, where he now faces treason charges. Similarly, 36 members of the Forum for Democratic Change were abducted during a leadership seminar in Kenya and are now charged with terrorism in Uganda.
Warnings of Mass Atrocities
The US-based Holocaust Memorial Museum recently issued a report warning of possible mass atrocities surrounding the election. It cited a combination of factors, including corruption, poor governance, and uncertainty about what would happen after Museveni’s eventual departure from power.
Ashleigh Landau, the report’s author, highlighted the government’s harsh response to protests as a key driver of violence. “If these protests were to continue and grow in size, the government may perceive Bobi Wine as a bigger threat and crack down much more harshly on them,” she said.
Government Denial
Emmanuel Dombo, spokesman for the ruling National Resistance Movement, denied allegations of election violence, claiming the party promotes peaceful elections. He accused opposition groups of spreading messages of violence instead.
However, George Kanyeihamba, a former supreme court judge, argued that violence has become entrenched in Uganda’s electoral process under Museveni. “Only a miracle would change that in 2026,” he said.
As Uganda heads toward its next election, the international community watches closely, with fears that the cycle of violence and repression could escalate further.
