Egypt Takes Dispute Over Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to the United Nations

Egypt has escalated its ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by formally bringing the matter to the United Nations. The Egyptian foreign minister has sent a letter to the President of the UN Security Council, highlighting the tensions and potential repercussions of Ethiopia’s recent actions concerning the dam. This move comes after more than a decade of negotiations that have failed to yield a resolution.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, is Africa’s largest hydroelectric project. Situated about 30 kilometers upstream from Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, the GERD has been a source of intense regional tension since construction began in 2011. Ethiopia views the dam as vital to its electricity needs and economic development, while Egypt and Sudan see it as a potential threat to their water security.

Egypt, in particular, is highly dependent on the Nile River, which provides 90% of the country’s freshwater. For centuries, Egypt has been regarded as the “gift of the Nile,” and its agricultural and urban sectors heavily rely on the river’s resources. The country faces an annual water deficit and, according to the United Nations, is expected to be classified as water-scarce by 2025.

The decision to involve the United Nations was prompted by recent statements from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed regarding the fifth phase of filling the GERD. In response, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty sent a letter to the President of the UN Security Council on September 1, urging the international community to address the escalating tensions.

“The Egyptian Foreign Minister has communicated Egypt’s grave concerns regarding Ethiopia’s unilateral actions,” the ministry said in a statement, as reported by Sputnik. “This follows 12 years of unsuccessful negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia concerning the dam’s impact on water security in downstream countries.”

Egypt’s decision to approach the UN comes after years of inconclusive negotiations. In December 2023, Egypt revealed that the trilateral negotiation process, which began in August of that year, had collapsed without any agreement. Four rounds of talks between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia failed to resolve the key issues surrounding the dam’s filling and operation.

In September 2023, Ethiopia announced that it had completed the fourth and final filling of the dam’s reservoir. This unilateral action by Ethiopia has further inflamed the situation, prompting Egypt to seek international intervention.

Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt have held more than a dozen meetings over the years to address water-sharing concerns, but their efforts have proven ineffective. Egypt and Sudan have repeatedly called on Ethiopia to suspend the filling of the reservoir until a legally binding agreement is reached. However, Ethiopia has maintained that the dam is crucial for its electricity generation and economic growth, rejecting calls to halt the process.

The Significance of the GERD

The $4.2 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, once completed, is expected to generate over 6,000 megawatts of electricity, significantly boosting Ethiopia’s power supply and enabling it to export electricity to neighboring countries. The dam is a centerpiece of Ethiopia’s plans to become a regional energy hub and is seen as a symbol of national pride and ambition.

However, for Egypt and Sudan, the dam represents a significant threat to their water resources. Egypt has expressed concerns that the rapid filling and operation of the dam, particularly during periods of drought, could drastically reduce the flow of water downstream, threatening its agricultural sector, drinking water supply, and overall water security.

Sudan, which lies between Ethiopia and Egypt, also fears that the dam could affect its own water infrastructure, including the Roseires Dam. Sudan has highlighted concerns about the potential impact of GERD on its flood management system and irrigation projects.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, has consistently defended its right to utilize the Blue Nile’s waters for its development needs. The country argues that the dam is essential for its electricity generation, which is critical for powering homes, industries, and infrastructure projects. Ethiopia has sought to reassure downstream countries that the dam will not significantly impact their water supplies and has offered to cooperate on technical issues.

In response to the recent tensions, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reiterated Ethiopia’s stance that the dam will not harm downstream countries and has expressed a willingness to continue dialogue. However, Ethiopia remains opposed to any binding agreement that it perceives as limiting its sovereign right to develop its water resources.

International Mediation and Potential Outcomes

By bringing the dispute to the UN Security Council, Egypt hopes to garner international support and pressure Ethiopia into reaching a comprehensive and legally binding agreement. The involvement of the UN could potentially pave the way for renewed negotiations or the appointment of international mediators to help broker a deal.

However, the success of this strategy is far from guaranteed. Ethiopia has previously resisted external intervention, arguing that the dispute is a regional issue that should be resolved by the parties directly involved. Moreover, other members of the UN Security Council may be reluctant to take sides in a complex and highly politicized dispute.

The dispute over the GERD is more than just a disagreement over water resources; it is emblematic of the broader geopolitical tensions in the Nile Basin region. The Nile River is a lifeline for millions of people across East Africa, and any disruption to its flow could have significant humanitarian, economic, and political consequences.

As Egypt pushes for international intervention, the stakes remain high. A failure to resolve the dispute could lead to heightened tensions and potentially even conflict. Conversely, a successful resolution could set a precedent for cooperation and shared management of the Nile’s resources, fostering regional stability and development.

As the UN Security Council considers Egypt’s letter, the international community will be watching closely. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has the potential to either drive a wedge between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt or serve as a catalyst for deeper regional cooperation. The outcome of this dispute will have far-reaching implications, not just for the countries directly involved, but for the entire Nile Basin region.