Nigeria’s GDP per capita falls to $824, worse than 1960 levels – AfDB President Adesina

Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has delivered a stark warning about Nigeria’s economic trajectory. In a keynote speech marking the 20th anniversary of investment firm Chapel Hill Denham in Lagos, Adesina declared that Nigeria is not just stagnating—it is regressing. “Nigerians are worse off today than they were in 1960,” he said, highlighting that the country’s GDP per capita has fallen from $1,847 at independence to just $824 in 2024.

That figure, he emphasized, is more than just a statistic. It represents a real decline in living standards, economic productivity, and national ambition. It’s a sign that, for all the talk of emerging market potential, Nigeria is falling behind—and fast.

The Numbers Tell a Story of Regression

To put Adesina’s point in perspective: in 1960, Nigeria’s GDP per capita was higher than that of South Korea. Today, South Korea’s per capita income exceeds $36,000—more than 40 times Nigeria’s. While South Korea used the last six decades to industrialize, innovate, and educate its way into the ranks of developed nations, Nigeria has struggled with mismanagement, underinvestment, and systemic corruption.

Adesina’s message was unflinching: the economic gap between Nigeria and the rest of the world is not a matter of fate—it’s the product of choices. And those choices must change.

A Call for a New Economic Model

At the heart of Adesina’s argument is the need for a radical overhaul of Nigeria’s economic model. The old playbook—one that relies heavily on oil revenues, minimal industrial diversification, and inadequate infrastructure—is no longer viable.

“We must shift our mindset and pursue rapid economic growth,” Adesina said. He called for Nigeria to position itself as Africa’s industrial leader by 2050. That means aggressive investment in key sectors: manufacturing, technology, energy, infrastructure, and human capital.

This is not a new idea, but what Adesina brought to the table was urgency. His framing suggests that without a deliberate shift, Nigeria risks being left behind in an increasingly competitive global economy.

Learning from South Korea

The comparison to South Korea isn’t just a rhetorical device—it’s a roadmap. In 1960, South Korea was recovering from war, with limited natural resources and a struggling economy. But it made key investments in education, manufacturing, and export-led growth, all underpinned by strong institutions and political will.

Nigeria, by contrast, has abundant natural resources, a large population, and a strategic geographic location—yet has struggled to convert these assets into sustainable growth. Adesina argued that the issue is not potential, but policy.

“Underdevelopment should not be accepted as our destiny,” he said. The tools are available. What’s missing is leadership and a coherent long-term vision.

Industrialization or Irrelevance?

Adesina’s remarks come at a critical moment. With a projected population of over 400 million by 2050, Nigeria is poised to become the third most populous country in the world. But population growth without economic expansion is a recipe for deeper poverty, rising unemployment, and potential instability.

For Nigeria to absorb this demographic growth, the country must industrialize—creating jobs, boosting exports, and building an economy that can sustain its people. This means moving beyond commodity dependence and embracing value-added industries, tech innovation, and infrastructure modernization.

What Needs to Change

To achieve this transformation, Adesina outlined several priorities:

• Infrastructure Investment: Roads, railways, power, and digital connectivity must be scaled up massively.
• Technology and Innovation: Nigeria must become a hub for innovation, especially in fintech, agri-tech, and digital services.
• Governance Reform: Corruption, inefficiency, and regulatory bottlenecks need to be addressed to attract investment and encourage entrepreneurship.
• Education and Skills: A focus on STEM education and vocational training is essential to prepare a future-ready workforce.

These are not abstract policy goals—they are the minimum requirements for a country that wants to remain competitive in the 21st century.

The 2050 Vision

Adesina closed his remarks with a vision for the Nigeria of 2050: a country that is developed, corruption-free, and a leader in Africa. It’s an ambitious goal, but one grounded in the belief that change is still possible—if the nation acts now.

“The Nigeria of 2050 must be deliberately shaped,” he said. That shaping, he made clear, will require tough decisions, strong leadership, and a willingness to break from the failed models of the past.

As Nigeria stands at an economic crossroads, Adesina’s warning is more than a critique—it’s a wake-up call. Without bold reform and a clear vision, the country’s promise will continue to fade. But with the right choices, the next chapter could look very different.